UN Warns Powerful El Niño Could Become One of the Strongest on Record, Raising Extreme Weather Risks

VoS NEWS DESK | CLIMATE & SCIENCE | 4 September 2026

According to the WMO, El Niño is already firmly established and is expected to strengthen further in the coming months, potentially reaching very strong intensity towards the end of 2026. Forecasts indicate an exceptionally high likelihood — close to 100 per cent — that the event will continue through February 2027.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Although it occurs periodically, a particularly strong event can influence weather systems across large parts of the world, increasing the risk of severe rainfall, drought, flooding, heatwaves and other extreme conditions.

The WMO has warned that the effects could be particularly serious for communities already facing water shortages, food insecurity and climate-related disasters. Changes in rainfall patterns can have significant consequences for agriculture, drinking-water supplies and energy production, while prolonged heat can place additional pressure on public health systems.

The situation is already being felt in some regions. Sri Lanka, for example, is experiencing a severe drought linked to El Niño conditions, with rainfall deficits affecting agricultural communities and water supplies. Farmers have reported major crop losses, while some rural communities are facing increasingly difficult access to water.

The potential impact extends beyond individual countries. Latin America is expected to experience significant effects later this year, while other regions could see unusual combinations of heat, drought and heavy rainfall. The WMO has stressed that governments and meteorological agencies need to strengthen early-warning systems and prepare vulnerable communities before the strongest phase of the event develops.

Climate scientists are also closely watching the interaction between El Niño and already elevated global temperatures. The WMO says exceptionally warm oceans are contributing to the intensity of the current event, while climate change can amplify the risks associated with extreme weather.

The United Nations has therefore called for stronger preparedness, particularly in sectors such as agriculture, health, water management and disaster response. Early forecasts and warnings could help governments protect food supplies, manage water resources and reduce the impact of extreme weather on vulnerable populations.

VoS CLIMATE INSIGHT

The developing El Niño is emerging as a major global climate concern for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. While the phenomenon itself is natural, its interaction with unusually warm global conditions could intensify its consequences.

With the WMO forecasting an exceptionally high probability that El Niño will persist into February 2027, governments and communities worldwide are being urged to prepare for potentially disruptive changes in weather patterns. The coming months will be crucial in determining how severe the event becomes and which regions experience its greatest impacts.

Source: World Meteorological Organization / Reuters / VoS News Desk.